Joanne Faulkner,

Editor (Asia – Middle East & Central)

 

BEIRUT – Fears are being raised about what the future holds for Lebanon after violent clashes erupted at the public funeral of murdered Intelligence chief Wissam al-Hassan on Sunday (21st). Although it would be over zealous to claim, Lebanon stands on the brink of another civil war, the speculation that has arisen over whether al-Hassan’s death was caused by a Syrian assassination plot, has seen actions in Lebanon reflective of its murky past.

Lebanon only emerged from a civil war in 1990 in which Syrian-stationed troops left in 2005. Lebanon’s political landscape has remained fragile ever since. Questions have emerged over what the continuing events around its border mean for the country. Lebanon is wedged between Syria and Israel, which until recently had emerged relatively unscathed from the Arab Spring. In the past, conflict seems to never be too far away for Lebanon, typically the battleground for other countries to play out their wars. It now looks like the next few months, if not weeks, will be pivotal for Lebanon as the fallout from the Syria crisis spills across the border and Lebanese-Syrian relations are tested.

For many years Lebanon has continued to remain influenced by Syria and other external forces. The powerful Shiite extreme party Hezbollah has close ties with the Syrian government and dominates Lebanon’s own political proceedings. The Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, supports the Assad regime, but this support has so far been low key, more concerned with the keeping Lebanon out of any actual conflict. Before al-Hassad’s death, any protest in Lebanon have been fairly isolated.

Since Friday, however, there have been cases of fighting breaking out across Beirut and wider with clashes between the police and protesters.  The weak government is also in no position to launch an attack to rid the country of the free-Syrian army, that currently uses it’s strategic position to launch attacks on the Syrian capital, and with large areas of country supporting the rebels, Mikati is now being blamed by some for not preventing the deadly car-bomb attack on Friday.

In context with the country’s history, it is almost remarkable that Lebanon has been able to retain any stability at all. Lebanon remains deeply divided between the Shia Muslims, who generally support President Assad and the Sunni minority who oppose him. al-Hassan’s death has acted mostly as a trigger to open long existing rifts that threaten to divide the country and erupt into actions that mimic those of the surrounding.

The war in Syria has already tested the fragile make-up of Lebanon. The operation in Syria will most likely exploit Lebanon’s instability during a time when Mikati is under relentless pressure to resign. But what will the Lebanese government do next? Lebanon arguably has the most to lose out of any possible conflict. The most pressing concern for Mikati will be to continue Lebanon’s recent efforts to rebuild after its own civil war ransacked the country. These will be eradicated if it fails to prevent the religious divides being released and tensions from being re-opened. This is most likely futile. It looks increasingly likely, that despite Lebanon’s attempts to prevent violence  it will be dragged back into conflict with the country that has always over-shadowed it.