Viktor Tsvetanov,

Editor (Europe)

 

LONDON – Nowadays, it doesn’t cost too much of an effort to determine what political party a newspaper is likely to support, especially in a multi-faith press system like the British one. Perhaps a page or two and it becomes crystal clear for the average reader whether a particular paper leans left or right, whether it is pro-European or conversely- Eurosceptic and so forth. This, therefore, makes it highly predictable what to expect from freely distributed editions such as Metro and newsstand tabloids as The Sun to respected broadsheets as The Times for instance.

Hence, it should not have been of such a surprise for me to open a recent issue of The Daily Mail and come across that “British jobs could be at risk when nearly 30 million Bulgarians and Romanians gain the right to live and work unrestricted in the UK from 2014.” One truly apocalyptic scenario on its own where, “we versus them” opposition is clearly visible, which is understandable for a conservative, daily middle-market tabloid shouting out about immigration policies.

This, by no means, aims to be an attempt to deny immigration in the United Kingdom, which has been apace for the last decade despite 2011 drop in net migration (in the year to December 2011 was 216,000, down from 252,000 in 2010) but predicting a 21st century Great Migration is a bit too much. As it becomes clear, in the same way in which British politicians, led by the Conservatives signal hostility to immigration, right-wing press representatives in one voice uncomplainingly condemn freedom of movement in the EU.

Since David Cameron’s promises to bring down net migration to below 100,000 until 2015, obviously a populist move, are hard to achieve, Mr Cameron has publicly come up with a proposal to review the rules guaranteeing freedom of movement within the EU. This right, in effect, cannot be withdrawn unless Britain leaves the Union, which the country is not about to do in the foreseeable future

In fact, what does not cease to strike us is the constant and willing one-sided representation of immigrants in the British public sphere. According to The Economist “the country has, installed a ‘keep out’ sign over the white cliffs of Dover” making it harder for foreign students and workers to settle in Britain. Conservatives argue that British labour market will suffer “adverse effects” in 2014, when Bulgarians and Romanians gain the right to live and work unrestricted in Britain. Rare are the cases of a positive outlook on immigration and its benefits to the British economy.

Looking at the not too distant past, politicians seem to be afraid of the 2004 scenario, when Poland and 7 other countries joined the European Union and immigrant waves soon followed up. Experts from the Home Office expect a similar plot to happen in 2014, when limitations imposed by the EU are lifted at the end of next year.

Statistics show nearly 40,000 Bulgarians and Romanians moved to the UK last year, with more than 130,000 living in Britain as of 2012 but is it realistic to predict another immigrant wave in 2014?

A recent survey conducted by Bulgaria’s NCSPO (National Centre for Studying Public Opinion) shows that only 14 % of the country’s shrinking 7,364,570 populations is willing to emigrate. Common reasons for emigration are low payment, unemployment and unsatisfying level of social security. Similar results came from a comparable study in Romania with the percentage rate of Romanians who expressed their intention to emigrate in 2011 is of 11 per cent.

Whether the market will be flooded with Bulgarians and Romanians will remain unclear until restrictions are lifted in 2014. Immigration is not a constant, but rather a variable, which depends on a number of factors that makes the process almost impossible to predict.

After all, economics are in flux, markets face ups and downs, and politics come and go. Probably, it is high time attitudes towards immigration changed too.